ARSENAL.FINANCE v1.0 // TACTICAL FINANCE PLATFORM
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ARSENAL > Dashboard
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SPX
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NDX
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10Y
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XAU
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WTI
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BTC
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FED
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VIX
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5Y INF
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Econ snapshot
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LN // take
All is good in the neighborhood. Don't let the doomsayers and victims tell you otherwise.
FRED
GDP growth
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CPI inflation
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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Can't decide between buying or renting?
Run the numbers with real data. See who wins - Sally or Jack - over any time horizon.
Open Buy vs Rent Calculator →
Don't understand your mortgage?
See exactly where every dollar goes. Compare 15yr vs 30yr. Find out how much extra payments save you.
Open Mortgage Calculator →
Get a full stock analysis without paying for "pro"
DCF valuation, 10-K financials, peer comps, ratio analysis, insider trades, and a conviction target. Type any ticker.
Open Stock Analyzer →
How much will your money grow?
See the power of compound interest. Change any input and watch the math work in real time.
Open Compound Interest Calculator →
Compare the best stocks, REITs, and bonds
Risk-return scatter plots with regression lines. Filter by volatility, drawdown, Sharpe ratio. Top 25 in each category.
Open Pickers →
Would your portfolio have beaten the S&P?
Pick any ETFs, set weights, and backtest up to 20 years. Full risk metrics including Sharpe, Sortino, max drawdown.
Open Portfolio Backtester →

Global Markets

Real-time prices. Auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.

Global equities indexesLive
TickerPriceChg1D %Annualized price return (excl. dividends)
1Y5Y10Y
United States
SPX
S&P 500
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NDX
Nasdaq 100
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Global
ACWI
MSCI All-Country
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Europe
VGK
FTSE Europe
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Asia
EWJ
Japan
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MCHI
China MSCI
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Emerging Markets
EEM
MSCI Emerging
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CommoditiesLive
TickerPriceChg1D %Annualized performance
1Y5Y10Y
XAU
Gold
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XAG
Silver
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WTI
Crude oil
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CryptoLive
TickerPrice24h24h %Annualized performance
1Y5Y10Y
BTC
Bitcoin
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ETH
Ethereum
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Bond market yieldsFRED
ICE BofA indices, effective yield
ClassYieldSpread
UST 10Y
US Treasury benchmark
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TIPS
10Y real yield (inflation-adj)
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AAA
AAA corporate
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AA
AA corporate
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A
A corporate
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BBB
BBB corporate
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BB
BB high yield
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B
B high yield
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CCC
CCC & below (junk)
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EM
Emerging markets
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Sovereign 10Y yieldsFRED
OECD long-term government bond rates
Country10Y yieldAvg CPI (10Y)Real yield
🇺🇸 US
United States
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🇩🇪 DE
Germany
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🇬🇧 GB
United Kingdom
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🇯🇵 JP
Japan
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🇨🇦 CA
Canada
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🇫🇷 FR
France
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🇮🇹 IT
Italy
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🇦🇺 AU
Australia
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US Economy

Growth, inflation, employment, rates, government debt, trade balance, and deficit - live from FRED.

Macro health heatmapFRED
GDP
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CPI
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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US Treasuries yield curveLive
FOMC dot plotLoading...
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GDP growthFRED
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Real GDP, YoY growth
InflationFRED
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CPI YoY (all items) · Fed avg target ~2%
Core CPI -
UnemploymentFRED
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U-3 unemployment rate · Fed est. natural rate ~4.0–4.4%
Interest ratesFRED
Fed Funds -
10Y Treasury -
30Y Mortgage -
Fed balance sheetFRED
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Total assets (WALCL)
Money supply (M2)FRED
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M2 YoY growth
Real wagesFRED
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Median weekly real earnings (Q, 1982-84 $)
Government spendingFRED
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Federal expenditures YoY growth (Q)
Government debt / GDPFRED
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Federal debt as % of GDP (Q)
Trade balanceFRED
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Net exports of goods & services, billions $ (Q)
Federal deficitFRED
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Federal surplus (+) or deficit (−), billions $ (A)

Global Economy

GDP share by country, major FX pairs, and global economic indicators.

GDP share by country (2024)IMF
Nominal GDP as % of world total - IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 estimates
USD / EURFRED
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Euros per US dollar (D)
USD / JPYFRED
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Japanese yen per US dollar (D)
USD / GBPFRED
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British pounds per US dollar (D)
USD / CNYFRED
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Chinese yuan per US dollar (D)
World GDPFRED
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Global GDP, trillions $ (A)

US Real Estate Tracker

Home prices, housing activity, and mortgage rates from FRED. CRE cap rates from industry estimates.

Case-Shiller
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Median price
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30Y rate
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Starts
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Permits
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Supply
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Home price indexFRED
Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted)
30Y mortgage rateFRED
Weekly average, 30-year fixed
Housing starts & permitsFRED
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Months of supplyFRED
Monthly supply of new houses (MSACSR). Below 4 = tight, above 6 = loose.
Median days on marketVelocity
Median days a listing sits before going under contract (MEDDAYONMARUS). Lower = faster market.
CRE cap ratesCBRE
Source: CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey, H2 2024 · Updated 2025-01
SectorCap rate10Y AvgSpread vs 10Y Tsy
Indus
Industrial
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Multi
Multifamily
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Office
Office
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Retail
Retail
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Hotel
Hospitality
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Portfolio Backtester

Pick any ETFs, set weights, and backtest against the S&P 500. Uses monthly close prices (price return, excl. dividends).

Portfolio builderInput
Allocation
Growth of $10,000Out
PortfolioS&P 500
DrawdownOut
PortfolioS&P 500
Risk & performanceOut

Economic Regime Detector

Growth × inflation framework based on Ray Dalio's macroeconomic regime model. Classifies the current environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.

Framework: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates

Current regimeLive
Detecting...
Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.
GDP growth -
CPI inflation -
The four regimes
Goldilocks
Growth rising, inflation falling. Best for risk assets. Equities and credit thrive.
Reflation
Growth rising, inflation rising. Commodities rally. Real assets outperform bonds.
Deflation
Growth falling, inflation falling. Treasuries and cash win. Risk-off environment.
Stagflation
Growth falling, inflation rising. Hardest regime. Gold, TIPS, and commodities as hedges.
Classification thresholds
Growth up = Real GDP YoY > 2.0%  ·  Inflation up = CPI YoY > 2.5%
Goldilocks growth up + inflation down  ·  Reflation growth up + inflation up  ·  Deflation growth down + inflation down  ·  Stagflation growth down + inflation up
Best assets by regimeRef
RegimeWinnersLosers
GoldilocksEquities, credit, growth stocksGold, commodities, cash
ReflationCommodities, value, TIPS, EMLong-duration bonds
DeflationTreasuries, cash, quality bondsEquities, commodities, credit
StagflationGold, TIPS, commodities, cashEquities, long bonds, credit
Regime history (1970–present)FRED
Goldilocks Reflation Deflation Stagflation
Regime rotation backtestLive

Two regime-rotation strategies vs passive S&P 500. Perfect foresight assumes you know next quarter's GDP & CPI - impossible, but shows the ceiling. Proxy rotation uses the yield curve (10Y - 3M > 0 = growth) and lagged CPI - data you'd actually have in real time.

Note: In certain periods, the proxy strategy can outperform "perfect foresight" because it uses lagged data (last quarter's GDP and CPI), which can accidentally capture mean-reversion timing — selling after peaks and buying after troughs. The foresight model allocates to current-quarter regimes, which may already be priced in. This is a feature of backtesting, not a guarantee of future results.
Loading portfolio data from FRED...
Growth vs inflation signalsFRED

Compound Interest Calculator

Change any value and the rest adjust automatically. Edit the final balance to solve backwards for the initial investment.

Total interest earned
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Total contributed
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Interest % of total
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Growth chartBar + line
Yearly contribution    Cumulative interest    Interest earned that year
Year-by-year breakdownTable
YearYearly ContributionCumulative ContributionsCumulative InterestAnnual InterestBalance

Mortgage Calculator

Compare loan terms, see amortization schedules, and calculate savings from extra payments.

Monthly P&I
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Total interest
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Total paid
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all payments + down
Loan-to-value
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Loan inputsTool
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Down: $80,000 | Loan: $320,000
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Amortization chartPrincipal vs interest
15-year vs 30-year comparisonSide by side
15-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
30-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
Interest savings with 15-year: $0
Amortization scheduleMonthly
YearMonthPaymentPrincipalInterestBalanceHome equityHome valueUnreal. appr.Total equity

Buy vs Rent Calculator

Compare the true cost of buying a home versus renting and investing the difference.

Assumes both parties have outside income to cover all monthly expenses. Net worth reflects only starting savings growth and home equity. Expenses shown for comparison only, not subtracted from net worth.
Breakeven year
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When buying beats renting
Sally's net worth
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Jack's net worth
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Advantage
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Personal assumptionsYou
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Both buyer and renter start with the same savings. The buyer deploys down payment + closing costs into the home. The renter invests everything.
Sally's home purchaseBuyer
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yrs
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$/mo
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$/mo
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Jack's rental lifeRenter
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🧘
LN // take
Notice how when you buy you now have three times the bills and stress than when you rent. Also notice that when you buy you better be very sure that you meet mortgage payments. If you don't, you lose your house and built up equity and appreciation. On the other hand, if you don't pay rent, let's just say I've known some people that have gotten away with crazy things.
Net worth over timeChart
Monthly cost comparisonChart
Year-by-year comparisonTable
YearSally cost/yrJack cost/yrSally's loan equitySally's appreciationSally's investmentsSally total NWJack total NWWho wins
💡
LN // take
So in conclusion, both Jack and Sally are dumbasses. Go live with your parents for as long as you can and keep them happy with your delicious Ubereats meals.

FX Converter

Live currency conversion with historical rate charts. Rates update on page load.

ConverterLive rates
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Fetching rates...
Historical ratesChart
USD/EUR -- 1 year
Cross rates vs USDMatrix
CurrencyRate (per 1 USD)Inverse (USD per 1)

Stock Picker

Compare US stocks across risk and return metrics.

Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Investment universeSortable
Universe: top 25 US stocks by total return since inception across major sectors. CAGR from FinanceCharts.com. Risk metrics from PortfoliosLab/Morningstar. Regression anchored at Rf=4.3%. Not financial advice.

Stock Analyzer

Type any US ticker for a full equity research report - DCF, comps, ratio analysis, management, risks, and a conviction price target.

Fixed Income Picker

Compare yields, risk metrics, and tax efficiency across treasuries, munis, corporates, REITs, and dividend equities.

Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Investment universeLoading yields...
Yields from FRED and Finnhub. Risk metrics from Morningstar/PortfoliosLab. Not financial advice.

REIT Picker

Compare REITs and REIT ETFs by risk and return.

Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Investment universeSortable
Universe: top 25 REITs and REIT ETFs by total return since inception. CAGR from FinanceCharts.com. Risk metrics from PortfoliosLab/Morningstar. Regression anchored at Rf=4.3%. Not financial advice.

Asset Correlation Matrices

Normal-period averages (~2010–2025) vs crash periods (GFC, COVID, 2022 bear). Plus longest-term matrix using maximum overlapping data.

Normal periods
Crash periods
−1.0 (inverse)
+1.0 (correlated)
Longest-term correlation matrixMax overlap
Each cell uses the maximum overlapping data window for that pair. Years shown below each value.
50+ yrs 30–49 yrs 10–29 yrs <10 yrs
Data availability by asset
Database sources

Killer Portfolios

A library of famous, backtested portfolio strategies anyone can copy with a few ETFs. All data is approximate and based on historical returns - past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Portfolios
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Highest CAGR
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Best Sharpe
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Shallowest DD
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Comparison tableRankings
PortfolioCAGRMax drawdownSharpeBest yearWorst yearStocks %
Approximate returns based on US data, 1972–2024. Rebalanced annually. Does not include taxes or transaction costs. Sources: Portfolio Charts, Portfolio Visualizer.
ETFs:

Free Excel Models

Downloadable financial models. No email required.

🚧
Coming soon
DCF templates, LBO models, comparable company analysis, and more. All free, no email gate. Check back soon.

AI Prompts for Finance

Copy-paste prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot.

🚧
Coming soon
Curated prompt packs for financial analysis, valuation, macro research, and portfolio construction. Free to download.

Articles

Original research and analysis. New articles published on Substack.

✍️
Articles coming soon. Subscribe on Substack to get notified.

Gold as a Crisis Asset

War, inflation, Fed cycles - since 1971.

Article12 min
Full interactive articleWartime data, inflation onset, Fed cycles, CAGR, charts

Asset Class Returns by Decade

Annualized total returns (geometric mean) for every major asset class, 1930s through 2020s. Color-coded: gold = positive, red = negative. Includes dividends and reinvestment where applicable.

Total returns heatmap
Decade Stocks Cash Gov Bonds Corp Bonds Housing REITs Gold Inflation
Data sourcesMethodology
Stocks: S&P 500 total return (incl. dividends). Source: NYU Stern / Damodaran.
Cash: 3-Month US Treasury Bills. Source: NYU Stern / FRED.
Gov Bonds: 10-Year US Treasury total return. Source: NYU Stern / Damodaran.
Corp Bonds: Moody's BAA Corporate Bond index total return. Source: Damodaran / Barclays.
Housing: Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (price only, excludes rental income). Source: Robert Shiller / FRED.
REITs: FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs total return. Source: NAREIT. Data starts 1972.
Gold: Year-end spot price per troy oz. Source: Kitco / World Gold Council.
Inflation: CPI-U annual average. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
All returns are annualized geometric means for the full decade (Jan 1 of start year to Dec 31 of end year). 2020s covers 2020–2024. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. "N/A" indicates data not available for that period. Real estate reflects home price appreciation only - total return including rental income would be higher.

Finance Dictionary

Search any finance term and get a clear, visual definition. Better than a textbook.

// About this site

Arsenal.finance is a free, open collection of financial tools, live market data, and original research. Every tool is built from scratch. No templates, no paywalls, no email gates.

The goal is to give people a full arsenal of tools for making smarter financial decisions. Whether you're saving for retirement, analyzing a stock, comparing mortgage options, or just trying to understand how markets work, everything here is free and actually useful.

// About me - Luis Nunez

I'm a finance and data enthusiast based in Miami, originally from Venezuela. Contrarian by nature. I build financial tools, research macro trends, and obsess over portfolio construction, market cycles, and economic history. I love placing bets and taking risks. Perhaps a bit too much.

// Investment philosophy

I don't believe in stock picking. I don't believe in market timing. I don't believe anyone can consistently predict where prices are headed, and the data backs this up. Unless you work at a company, you have no real insight into what's happening inside it. The only traders I've seen make money consistently are insiders. Everyone else might have a good year or two but eventually ends up back where they started, or worse. Over a long enough time horizon, virtually no one has beaten the market after fees. The handful who have are statistical anomalies, not proof that it can be done reliably.

Picking stocks, trading events, calling tops and bottoms. It's fun, I get it, and I do it myself on the side. But fun and profitable are not the same thing. In the long run, the broad market wins. It always has.

Having witnessed firsthand the decline of Venezuela, once a rich and prosperous society, it should come as no surprise that I'm a Friedman guy, not a Keynesian. Free markets allocate capital better than central planners ever could. Monetary policy matters more than fiscal stimulus. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Government intervention usually creates more distortions than it solves.

I believe index funds are one of the greatest creators of prosperity in the world. They democratized wealth building. Before Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1976, investing was a game rigged for Wall Street insiders with high fees and information advantages. Today, anyone with $100 can own a slice of the 500 largest companies on earth for virtually zero cost. That's revolutionary. That's prosperity at scale.

My one exception to the no-stock-picking rule is Tesla, and I'll own that contradiction. Sometimes you just believe in something.

// Support

I do this because I enjoy it, at no cost to you, but I do incur moderate software and data costs. If you find my work useful, tips of any amount are appreciated.

Venmo: @luisnunezp

// Contact

Collaborate, hire, or argue about cap rates.

Report a bug Suggest a feature

// My portfolio

55% Nasdaq, 25% Tesla, 10% gold, 10% bitcoin. That's 80% of my portfolio. No regrets. Started in May 2020 (actually started earlier but let's call that period my learning curve and hit delete). You can do the math and see how I've done in the portfolio backtester.

The other 20% or so of my money goes into all kinds of crazy bets on prediction markets, options, individual stocks, anything that catches my eye. That part is untracked and probably best left unexamined.

Disclaimer: Arsenal.finance is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All tools, calculators, and analyses are provided "as is" without warranty. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Use at your own risk.