Real-time prices. Auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.
Global equities indexesLive
Ticker
Price
Chg
1D %
Annualized price return (excl. dividends)
1Y
5Y
10Y
United States
SPX S&P 500
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NDX Nasdaq 100
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Global
ACWI MSCI All-Country
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Europe
VGK FTSE Europe
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Asia
EWJ Japan
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MCHI China MSCI
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Emerging Markets
EEM MSCI Emerging
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CommoditiesLive
Ticker
Price
Chg
1D %
Annualized performance
1Y
5Y
10Y
XAU Gold
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XAG Silver
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WTI Crude oil
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CryptoLive
Ticker
Price
24h
24h %
Annualized performance
1Y
5Y
10Y
BTC Bitcoin
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ETH Ethereum
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Bond market yieldsFRED
ICE BofA indices, effective yield
Class
Yield
Spread
UST 10Y US Treasury benchmark
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TIPS 10Y real yield (inflation-adj)
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real
AAA AAA corporate
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AA AA corporate
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A A corporate
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BBB BBB corporate
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BB BB high yield
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B B high yield
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CCC CCC & below (junk)
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EM Emerging markets
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Sovereign 10Y yieldsFRED
OECD long-term government bond rates
Country
10Y yield
Avg CPI (10Y)
Real yield
🇺🇸 US United States
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🇩🇪 DE Germany
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🇬🇧 GB United Kingdom
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🇯🇵 JP Japan
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🇨🇦 CA Canada
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🇫🇷 FR France
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🇮🇹 IT Italy
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🇦🇺 AU Australia
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US Economy
Growth, inflation, employment, rates, government debt, trade balance, and deficit - live from FRED.
Macro health heatmapFRED
GDP
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CPI
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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US Treasuries yield curveLive
FOMC dot plotLoading...
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GDP growthFRED
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Real GDP, YoY growth
InflationFRED
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CPI YoY (all items) · Fed avg target ~2%
Core CPI -
UnemploymentFRED
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U-3 unemployment rate · Fed est. natural rate ~4.0–4.4%
Interest ratesFRED
Fed Funds -
10Y Treasury -
30Y Mortgage -
Fed balance sheetFRED
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Total assets (WALCL)
Money supply (M2)FRED
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M2 YoY growth
Real wagesFRED
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Median weekly real earnings (Q, 1982-84 $)
Government spendingFRED
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Federal expenditures YoY growth (Q)
Government debt / GDPFRED
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Federal debt as % of GDP (Q)
Trade balanceFRED
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Net exports of goods & services, billions $ (Q)
Federal deficitFRED
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Federal surplus (+) or deficit (−), billions $ (A)
Global Economy
GDP share by country, major FX pairs, and global economic indicators.
GDP share by country (2024)IMF
Nominal GDP as % of world total - IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 estimates
USD / EURFRED
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Euros per US dollar (D)
USD / JPYFRED
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Japanese yen per US dollar (D)
USD / GBPFRED
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British pounds per US dollar (D)
USD / CNYFRED
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Chinese yuan per US dollar (D)
World GDPFRED
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Global GDP, trillions $ (A)
US Real Estate Tracker
Home prices, housing activity, and mortgage rates from FRED. CRE cap rates from industry estimates.
Case-Shiller
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Median price
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30Y rate
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Starts
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Permits
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Supply
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Home price indexFRED
Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted)
30Y mortgage rateFRED
Weekly average, 30-year fixed
Housing starts & permitsFRED
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Months of supplyFRED
Monthly supply of new houses (MSACSR). Below 4 = tight, above 6 = loose.
Median days on marketVelocity
Median days a listing sits before going under contract (MEDDAYONMARUS). Lower = faster market.
CRE cap ratesCBRE
Source: CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey, H2 2024 · Updated 2025-01
Sector
Cap rate
10Y Avg
Spread vs 10Y Tsy
Indus Industrial
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Multi Multifamily
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Office Office
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Retail Retail
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Hotel Hospitality
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Portfolio Backtester
Pick any ETFs, set weights, and backtest against the S&P 500. Uses monthly close prices (price return, excl. dividends).
Portfolio builderInput
Allocation
Growth of $10,000Out
PortfolioS&P 500
DrawdownOut
PortfolioS&P 500
Risk & performanceOut
Economic Regime Detector
Growth × inflation framework based on Ray Dalio's macroeconomic regime model. Classifies the current environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.
Framework: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
Current regimeLive
Detecting...
Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.
GDP growth -
CPI inflation -
The four regimes
Goldilocks
Growth rising, inflation falling. Best for risk assets. Equities and credit thrive.
Reflation
Growth rising, inflation rising. Commodities rally. Real assets outperform bonds.
Deflation
Growth falling, inflation falling. Treasuries and cash win. Risk-off environment.
Stagflation
Growth falling, inflation rising. Hardest regime. Gold, TIPS, and commodities as hedges.
Classification thresholds
Growth up = Real GDP YoY > 2.0% · Inflation up = CPI YoY > 2.5% Goldilocks growth up + inflation down ·
Reflation growth up + inflation up ·
Deflation growth down + inflation down ·
Stagflation growth down + inflation up
Best assets by regimeRef
Regime
Winners
Losers
Goldilocks
Equities, credit, growth stocks
Gold, commodities, cash
Reflation
Commodities, value, TIPS, EM
Long-duration bonds
Deflation
Treasuries, cash, quality bonds
Equities, commodities, credit
Stagflation
Gold, TIPS, commodities, cash
Equities, long bonds, credit
Regime history (1970–present)FRED
GoldilocksReflationDeflationStagflation
Regime rotation backtestLive
Two regime-rotation strategies vs passive S&P 500. Perfect foresight assumes you know next quarter's GDP & CPI - impossible, but shows the ceiling. Proxy rotation uses the yield curve (10Y - 3M > 0 = growth) and lagged CPI - data you'd actually have in real time.
Note: In certain periods, the proxy strategy can outperform "perfect foresight" because it uses lagged data (last quarter's GDP and CPI), which can accidentally capture mean-reversion timing — selling after peaks and buying after troughs. The foresight model allocates to current-quarter regimes, which may already be priced in. This is a feature of backtesting, not a guarantee of future results.
Loading portfolio data from FRED...
Growth vs inflation signalsFRED
Compound Interest Calculator
Change any value and the rest adjust automatically. Edit the final balance to solve backwards for the initial investment.
Total interest earned
$0
Total contributed
$0
Interest % of total
0%
$
$
%
yrs
$
Growth chartBar + line
Yearly contribution
Cumulative interest
Interest earned that year
Year-by-year breakdownTable
Year
Yearly Contribution
Cumulative Contributions
Cumulative Interest
Annual Interest
Balance
Mortgage Calculator
Compare loan terms, see amortization schedules, and calculate savings from extra payments.
Monthly P&I
$0
Total interest
$0
Total paid
$0
all payments + down
Loan-to-value
0%
Loan inputsTool
$
%
Down: $80,000 | Loan: $320,000
%
$
%/yr
Amortization chartPrincipal vs interest
15-year vs 30-year comparisonSide by side
15-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
30-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
Interest savings with 15-year: $0
Amortization scheduleMonthly
Year
Month
Payment
Principal
Interest
Balance
Home equity
Home value
Unreal. appr.
Total equity
Buy vs Rent Calculator
Compare the true cost of buying a home versus renting and investing the difference.
Assumes both parties have outside income to cover all monthly expenses. Net worth reflects only starting savings growth and home equity. Expenses shown for comparison only, not subtracted from net worth.
Breakeven year
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When buying beats renting
Sally's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Jack's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Advantage
-
At end of time horizon
Personal assumptionsYou
$
yrs
Both buyer and renter start with the same savings. The buyer deploys down payment + closing costs into the home. The renter invests everything.
Sally's home purchaseBuyer
$
%
%
yrs
%
$/mo
$/mo
$/mo
%/yr
%
%
%/yr
Jack's rental lifeRenter
$
%
%
🧘
LN // take
Notice how when you buy you now have three times the bills and stress than when you rent. Also notice that when you buy you better be very sure that you meet mortgage payments. If you don't, you lose your house and built up equity and appreciation. On the other hand, if you don't pay rent, let's just say I've known some people that have gotten away with crazy things.
Net worth over timeChart
Monthly cost comparisonChart
Year-by-year comparisonTable
Year
Sally cost/yr
Jack cost/yr
Sally's loan equity
Sally's appreciation
Sally's investments
Sally total NW
Jack total NW
Who wins
💡
LN // take
So in conclusion, both Jack and Sally are dumbasses. Go live with your parents for as long as you can and keep them happy with your delicious Ubereats meals.
FX Converter
Live currency conversion with historical rate charts. Rates update on page load.
ConverterLive rates
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Fetching rates...
Historical ratesChart
USD/EUR -- 1 year
Cross rates vs USDMatrix
Currency
Rate (per 1 USD)
Inverse (USD per 1)
Stock Picker
Compare US stocks across risk and return metrics.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Investment universeSortable
Universe: top 25 US stocks by total return since inception across major sectors. CAGR from FinanceCharts.com. Risk metrics from PortfoliosLab/Morningstar. Regression anchored at Rf=4.3%. Not financial advice.
Stock Analyzer
Type any US ticker for a full equity research report - DCF, comps, ratio analysis, management, risks, and a conviction price target.
⏳
Fetching data from Finnhub, SEC EDGAR, and Yahoo Finance...
This may take a few seconds
Conviction targetThesis
DCF valuation+ expandModel
%
%
%
Comparable multiplesPeers
Financial statements10-K
Ratio analysisFundamentals
Insider tradesSEC Form 4
RisksWhat could go wrong
Analyst consensusWall St
Earnings historySurprises
Data from Finnhub, SEC EDGAR (10-K), and Yahoo Finance. DCF uses 5-year projection with terminal growth. Not financial advice.
Fixed Income Picker
Compare yields, risk metrics, and tax efficiency across treasuries, munis, corporates, REITs, and dividend equities.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Investment universeLoading yields...
Yields from FRED and Finnhub. Risk metrics from Morningstar/PortfoliosLab. Not financial advice.
REIT Picker
Compare REITs and REIT ETFs by risk and return.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Investment universeSortable
Universe: top 25 REITs and REIT ETFs by total return since inception. CAGR from FinanceCharts.com. Risk metrics from PortfoliosLab/Morningstar. Regression anchored at Rf=4.3%. Not financial advice.
Asset Correlation Matrices
Normal-period averages (~2010–2025) vs crash periods (GFC, COVID, 2022 bear). Plus longest-term matrix using maximum overlapping data.
Normal periods
Crash periods
−1.0 (inverse)+1.0 (correlated)
Longest-term correlation matrixMax overlap
Each cell uses the maximum overlapping data window for that pair. Years shown below each value.
50+ yrs30–49 yrs10–29 yrs<10 yrs
Data availability by asset
Database sources
Killer Portfolios
A library of famous, backtested portfolio strategies anyone can copy with a few ETFs. All data is approximate and based on historical returns - past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Portfolios
0
Highest CAGR
-
Best Sharpe
-
Shallowest DD
-
Comparison tableRankings
Portfolio
CAGR
Max drawdown
Sharpe
Best year
Worst year
Stocks %
Approximate returns based on US data, 1972–2024. Rebalanced annually. Does not include taxes or transaction costs. Sources: Portfolio Charts, Portfolio Visualizer.
ETFs:
Loading backtest data from Yahoo Finance...
Growth of $10,000
PortfolioS&P 500
Drawdown
Free Excel Models
Downloadable financial models. No email required.
🚧
Coming soon
DCF templates, LBO models, comparable company analysis, and more. All free, no email gate. Check back soon.
AI Prompts for Finance
Copy-paste prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot.
🚧
Coming soon
Curated prompt packs for financial analysis, valuation, macro research, and portfolio construction. Free to download.
Articles
Original research and analysis. New articles published on Substack.
✍️
Articles coming soon. Subscribe on Substack to get notified.
Gold as a Crisis Asset
War, inflation, Fed cycles - since 1971.
Article12 min
Full interactive articleWartime data, inflation onset, Fed cycles, CAGR, charts
Asset Class Returns by Decade
Annualized total returns (geometric mean) for every major asset class, 1930s through 2020s. Color-coded: gold = positive, red = negative. Includes dividends and reinvestment where applicable.
Total returns heatmap
Decade
Stocks
Cash
Gov Bonds
Corp Bonds
Housing
REITs
Gold
Inflation
Data sourcesMethodology
Stocks: S&P 500 total return (incl. dividends). Source: NYU Stern / Damodaran.
Cash: 3-Month US Treasury Bills. Source: NYU Stern / FRED.
Gov Bonds: 10-Year US Treasury total return. Source: NYU Stern / Damodaran.
Corp Bonds: Moody's BAA Corporate Bond index total return. Source: Damodaran / Barclays.
Housing: Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (price only, excludes rental income). Source: Robert Shiller / FRED.
REITs: FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs total return. Source: NAREIT. Data starts 1972.
Gold: Year-end spot price per troy oz. Source: Kitco / World Gold Council.
Inflation: CPI-U annual average. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
All returns are annualized geometric means for the full decade (Jan 1 of start year to Dec 31 of end year). 2020s covers 2020–2024. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. "N/A" indicates data not available for that period. Real estate reflects home price appreciation only - total return including rental income would be higher.
Finance Dictionary
Search any finance term and get a clear, visual definition. Better than a textbook.
No terms match your search.
// About this site
Arsenal.finance is a free, open collection of financial tools, live market data, and original research. Every tool is built from scratch. No templates, no paywalls, no email gates.
The goal is to give people a full arsenal of tools for making smarter financial decisions. Whether you're saving for retirement, analyzing a stock, comparing mortgage options, or just trying to understand how markets work, everything here is free and actually useful.
// About me - Luis Nunez
I'm a finance and data enthusiast based in Miami, originally from Venezuela. Contrarian by nature. I build financial tools, research macro trends, and obsess over portfolio construction, market cycles, and economic history. I love placing bets and taking risks. Perhaps a bit too much.
// Investment philosophy
I don't believe in stock picking. I don't believe in market timing. I don't believe anyone can consistently predict where prices are headed, and the data backs this up. Unless you work at a company, you have no real insight into what's happening inside it. The only traders I've seen make money consistently are insiders. Everyone else might have a good year or two but eventually ends up back where they started, or worse. Over a long enough time horizon, virtually no one has beaten the market after fees. The handful who have are statistical anomalies, not proof that it can be done reliably.
Picking stocks, trading events, calling tops and bottoms. It's fun, I get it, and I do it myself on the side. But fun and profitable are not the same thing. In the long run, the broad market wins. It always has.
Having witnessed firsthand the decline of Venezuela, once a rich and prosperous society, it should come as no surprise that I'm a Friedman guy, not a Keynesian. Free markets allocate capital better than central planners ever could. Monetary policy matters more than fiscal stimulus. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Government intervention usually creates more distortions than it solves.
I believe index funds are one of the greatest creators of prosperity in the world. They democratized wealth building. Before Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1976, investing was a game rigged for Wall Street insiders with high fees and information advantages. Today, anyone with $100 can own a slice of the 500 largest companies on earth for virtually zero cost. That's revolutionary. That's prosperity at scale.
My one exception to the no-stock-picking rule is Tesla, and I'll own that contradiction. Sometimes you just believe in something.
// Support
I do this because I enjoy it, at no cost to you, but I do incur moderate software and data costs. If you find my work useful, tips of any amount are appreciated.
55% Nasdaq, 25% Tesla, 10% gold, 10% bitcoin. That's 80% of my portfolio. No regrets. Started in May 2020 (actually started earlier but let's call that period my learning curve and hit delete). You can do the math and see how I've done in the portfolio backtester.
The other 20% or so of my money goes into all kinds of crazy bets on prediction markets, options, individual stocks, anything that catches my eye. That part is untracked and probably best left unexamined.
Disclaimer: Arsenal.finance is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All tools, calculators, and analyses are provided "as is" without warranty. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Use at your own risk.